Bringing the Housing Shortage into Sharper Focus: National Housing Gap Analysis

The nation is in the midst of a near 10-year housing production shortfall, which contributed to a rise in sale prices and rents, which exacerbated both the availability and affordability of housing. While the housing shortfall has been centered in public policy discussions over the last few years, there is a lack of clarity on the exact contours of the shortfall. Estimates vary widely based on the methodological approach taken by analysts, and all gap estimates conflate different parts of the housing market (e.g., owners and renters or price/rent levels), making them less than advantageous for policymakers and investors seeking to address the market shortfall.

This paper presents a picture of the scale and scope of the housing shortage. We first offer varying industry estimates and explain how and why they differ. We then break out the national shortage estimates to assess the shortfall at the state, regional and local level. The data present a picture of the nation’s housing stock as a set of different markets, closer to what households experience (e.g., families who wish to own or rent; lower, middle, higher income families). Localized estimates for census tracts for the nation’s near 350 cities with population over 100,000 provide a foundation upon which policymakers and investors can work to address the market shortfalls.